A Regional Nominee Program for Cape Breton
Although an island blessed with extensive natural resources, a moderate climate, and a majestic landscape, Cape Breton has experienced a prolonged economic decline characterized by massive out-migration of young, well-educated adults.
Cape Breton Island is the easternmost of the five economic regions in the province of Nova Scotia.
Although an island blessed with extensive natural resources, a moderate climate, and a majestic landscape, Cape Breton has experienced a prolonged economic decline characterized by massive out-migration of young, well-educated adults.
Over a period of several decades, really since the decline of its two core industries – steel-making and coal mining in the early 1960s, a variety of economic development programs have been largely unsuccessful. Cape Breton’s economic development initiatives have tended to focus on discrete projects and to view population stabilization as a by-product of successful economic projects.
Cape Breton’s economic decline stands in stark contrast to the growth and development of its neighboring island, Prince Edward Island. In the last decade, PEI initiated a population strategy in which, unlike Cape Breton’s approach, population stabilization was viewed as the mechanism by which the economic base of the island could be grown and diversified.
During the period from 2006 through 2016, according to Statistics Canada’s Census data, the population of Prince Edward Island grew from 135,851 in 2006 to 142,907 in 2016 (5.2%). By comparison, during the same period, the population of Cape Breton declined from 142,298 in 2006 to 132,010 in 2016, a reduction of 7.2%.
Consequently, in a period of fifteen years, a significant reversal has transpired for two islands located in the same geographic space in eastern Canada. Cape Breton which was the more populous region in 2006 by more than 6,000 people is now smaller than PEI by almost 11,000 people.
Of equal significance, as PEI has grown its population so too has the employment base of PEI grown. Total estimated employment in PEI grew from a level of 68,000 in 2006 to 71,500 in 2016 (CANSIM table 282-0125). By comparison, as Cape Breton’s population has declined its employment base has also declined. Total estimated employment in Cape Breton was 55,100 in 2006 and had fallen to 48,000 in 2016.
The key component of population change that has enabled Prince Edward Island to grow has been immigration. Prince Edward Island consistently experiences net out-migration to other provinces in Canada. In the past fourteen years, PEI has experienced net out-migration to other provinces in ten years (CANSIM table 051-0060). In 2014-2015, for example, PEI’s net interprovincial out-migration was 1,243. In the same year, however, PEI’s international immigration was 1,336.
In 2001-2002, total international immigration in PEI was 145. By 2007-2008, this figure had increased to 1,282 and the total has since been above 1,000 in every year but one. In 2001-2002, total international immigration in Cape Breton was 53 and in 2014-2015 it was 69. Unlike PEI, Cape Breton has no population strategy and, in particular, lacks a devoted immigration nominee program.
The provincial nominee program is not working well for regions outside of Halifax. Of the individuals nominated by the Province of Nova Scotia in 2016, 87% expressed an intention to settle in the Halifax capital region. This leaves very few nominees to move into Nova Scotia’s four other economic regions. The Halifax Regional Municipality – a region that comprises 40% of the province’s total population – is receiving well in excess of 80% of total immigrants coming to the province.
Meanwhile, the demographic situation in Cape Breton remains dire (see Figure 1). It is a crisis. Cape Breton is losing a minimum of 1% of its population every year and the median age of the population is now close to fifty (50) years, well above both the provincial and national average.
The more that out-migration that takes place (without intentional in-migration), the more difficult it is to sustain the public and private social and physical infrastructure that makes a region attractive for young families. It is a vicious cycle but a cycle that can be broken with appropriate policy support.
Figure 1:
